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日央行還會進一步轉向嗎?
uSMART盈立智投 12-21 11:06

12月20日,日央行自2019年3月以來首次提高10年期國債利率目標上限25基點至0.5%。

中泰證券指出,表面上看,日央行稱上調利率上限旨在修復日債市場現券和期貨間的套利功能性,有助於貨幣政策向實體經濟傳導。

但本質上來看,債市功能受損的根本原因是YCC政策僅對10年期國債市場實行寬鬆,上限調整是日央行的被動收緊。隨着日央行行長的任期將在明年3月迎來尾聲,日本貨幣政策也將出現進一步調整。當前下任行長的主要候選人均做出鷹派發言,雨宮正佳、山口光秀和中曾宏在近月都強調央行要爲退出寬鬆做準備。

中泰證券認爲日本貨幣政策若轉向或採取漸進式路徑,首先逐步上調十年期國債目標利率至合理區間,觀察政策效果與市場反饋,之後再考慮完全退出YCC並提高政策利率,需要警惕貨幣政策超預期對全球金融市場的衝擊。

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