大行評級 | 大摩:內房板塊有吸引力,看好潤地中海外發展
格隆匯12月21日丨大摩發研報指,將對中國房地產行業的看法從符合預期上調至具有吸引力,近期政府出台的政策表明重點將轉向促成長,明年住房改善需求或得到進一步刺激,銷售復甦快於預期的可能性更高,可能到明年二季度中期轉為正成長,投資者信心未來幾個月更加樂觀。
該行表示,國有企業土地儲備優質充沛,2023年銷售成長或表現出色;民營企業明年下半年恢復拿地後,2024年或潛力更高,預計未來兩年所覆蓋的開發商銷售年均複合成長率為14%-19%,如果房價上漲,2024年的盈利成長可能為4%-16%。
該行提及,看好華潤置地(1109.HK)和中國海外發展(0688.HK),可以作為長期市場整合企業;青睞香港上市的龍湖集團(0960.HK)和新城發展(1030.HK),銷售和租金雙雙回暖,料帶來啤打值收益,由於流動性風險降低,將合景泰富(1813.HK)評級從“減持”上調至“與大市同步”,將目標價從1.07港元提高近一倍至2.02港元。
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