《大行報告》富瑞:亞太區保險股首選友邦(01299.HK)及保誠(02378.HK) 上調中國平安(02318.HK)、國壽(02628.HK)及太保(02601.HK)目標價
富瑞發表報告指,內地壽險股由10月谷底回升40至80%。該行相信,通過更好的投資收益表現,內涵價值(EV)加速和內涵價值回報率仍有上升空間,幅度料介乎低至中雙位數(約10%至16%)。不過,今年第四季和明年首季的承保環境可能仍然具有挑戰性。以股份而言,估值重評中較容易的階段已完結。該行上調多家壽險股目標價,詳見另表。
該行亞太區保險股首選友邦(01299.HK)及保誠(02378.HK),因為不僅能受惠於宏觀經濟見底反彈,亦能受惠於於內地重新開放邊境,並偏好它們在印度和馬來西亞業務的增長前景。
該行在內地保險板塊中偏好中國平安(02318.HK),因為鑒於政策支持下,房地產行業的風險減退。房地產投資現時只佔保險資金投資組合的4.8%,其中70%是按成本入賬的實物資產,減值風險很低。未來投資者可能會重新關注平安擅長的基本面,如承保盈利能力等。
不過,報告稱,人保集團(01339.HK)在額外虧損撥備拖累下,盈利或有下行壓力,評級降至「持有」。
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