凱基亞洲料中國明年經濟增長5% 恆指目標21,100點薦9大焦點港股
阿思達克 12-12 13:31
凱基亞洲預期，美國或於明年第二季踏入溫和衰退，衰退期將為一至兩季。中國方面，展望今明兩年中國經濟增長或為3.1%及5%，通脹料分別2%及3%。當中，房地產的復甦過程及防疫措施的放寬速度，都對明年內地經濟復甦影響甚大。另外，凱基亞洲投資策略部主管溫傑料本港最快於4至5月通關。
溫傑指出，明年恆指目標為21,100點，樂觀情境為23,300點，焦點股分別為華潤啤酒(00291.HK)、中國中免(01880.HK)、京東-SW(09618.HK)、友邦保險(01299.HK)、太古A(00019.HK)、東方電氣(01072.HK)、中廣核電力(01816.HK)、中銀香港(02388.HK)、中國電信(00728.HK)。他預計，明年股市低位料為14,300點，料明年波幅較窄，影響因素包括美國通脹及經濟衰退幅度、內地疫情及相關防疫措施等。
雖然他估計美國消費物價指數(CPI)已於今年6月見頂，但受工資及租金增長拖慢通脹回落的速度，聯儲局因此有機會於明年2及3月進一步各加息25點子，第一季後，特別是下半年的利率走勢則暫難判斷。
他預計，明年首季後聯儲局繼續加息，維持利率不變與降息的機率分別為35%、45%與20%。綜合而言，短期股市或受惠「加息放緩，通脹降溫」的預期，惟上述提到的經濟放緩及全球流動性減少，將限制股市表現。溫傑指，美國2023及2024年進入衰退的憂慮增加，料2023年軍工及航空、太陽能及基礎金屬或跑贏其他行業。
他表示，隨著經濟放緩，企業盈利展望有被下調的風險。假如美國一如預期出現經濟衰退，明年美股企業利潤或回落介乎約8%至10%。展望明年第二季或為重要時間，經濟及政策的能見度有機會明顯好轉。現時只宜以股債多元平衡配置，穩健應對當前市況波動。2023年的投資策略分別為環球防守性股票、分散部署亞洲股債、投資級別債券。
至於新加坡，凱基亞洲料當地2023年CPI達3.5%，而新加坡金管局(MAS)核心CPI預計為3.1%，又預計印尼經濟增長率將溫和放緩，不過明年GDP增速仍有望達到5%的水平，通脹將維持在5.7%，基準利率將徘徊在5%至6%之間。
Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
More Content
CS Hotline: +852 3018 4526
Trading days: 24 hours | Non-trading days: 9:00-18:00
