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疫後盈利有望遠超2019年,航空股復甦信號強烈?機構:長期看好航空業基本面修復彈性
uSMART盈立智投 12-07 11:49

伴隨疫情防控政策優化調整,市場對於出行板塊的關注正逐步轉向未來業績修復路徑。中金髮表研報表示,全面看多A/H航空板塊,機場精選個股,該機構認爲在經歷三年的低迷後,作爲週期板塊的航空業已積累了強大的向上勢能,疫後盈利有望遠超2019年。

來源:中金研究

中國疫後基本面修復情況與美國的不同?中金認爲,中國航空業此後基本面演繹將強於美國,基於1)量上看,中國航空業屬於成長市場(疫情前5年需求CAGR 13%vs美國4%),同時航空出行低位運行的時間更長,因此積壓的出行需求爆發力更強;

2)價上看,我國後續票價提升潛力更高,考慮票價市場化改革打開核心航線提價空間(目前主要航線經濟艙全價較2019已提升30%,我們測算大航Top20國內航線較2019每提價10%將爲大航每家增厚20億元盈利)及國際線高票價彈性(1H22爲1H19的5.5倍,若國際線需求基本完全修復時票價較疫前高30%,可爲大航每家增厚近90億元盈利)

3)成本看,中國飛行員欠缺情況相對較好同時通脹壓力相對小,人工等成本的表現將好於美國。

與中國更爲相似的亞太地區航空業的修復特徵?亞太航司修復多方面呈現出比歐美更積極的特徵:1)國內線修復雖受疫情反覆影響,但疫情邊際影響顯著遞減;2)國際線正迅速修復,每月修復速率與歐美相當;3)票價表現(較2019增長36%)強於歐美(增長20%);4)非油成本上漲壓力較歐美相對較小。

疫後商務出行是否長期受損?當前歐美航司商務需求恢復至疫前75%且仍在按5-10ppts/季度的速度修復,線下商業交流仍存在其必要性。

海外機場業股價的修復情況?中金髮現海外機場股價較航司修復趨勢更明顯,目前主要機場股價已修復至疫前90%。

長期看好基本面修復彈性,短期防控政策優化提振投資情緒

中金認爲,在經歷三年的低迷後,作爲週期板塊的航空業已積累了強大的向上勢能,疫後盈利有望遠超2019年。

航空:在持續低位運行下行業未來供需恢復確定性較強。從海外經驗看,出行政策放開後,當補償性需求釋放,票價有望大幅上漲。預計行業到2024年時供需關係有望恢復至疫情前水平;同時,中國國內經濟艙全價提升及國際線放開可能帶來高票價彈性,均有望帶動航空盈利超預期。板塊短期將隨主要城市疫情動向、防疫政策調整而出現波段式行情,國際線增班等事宜使得市場對於板塊的投資情緒逐步回暖。建議持續關注政策動向。

機場:業績主要取決於國際線需求恢復程度。假設疫情防控優化調整,我們預計2023年國際旅客量將恢復至2019年的3成以上,機場業績邊際改善,板塊投資情緒進一步提振,板塊投資將聚焦於國際旅客恢復之後,免稅客單的恢復以及增長情況。國內機場在國際線修復後議價能力猶在,疫後人均免稅消費將較疫情前有較大提升。

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