《大行報告》大和予恆指明年基本情境目標22,500點 看好騰訊、美團及金沙中國等
大和發表2023年中國資本市場策略報告指,內地的防疫政策及美元走勢都將決定市場變化。該行預計,上證綜合指數2023年年底目標為3,550點,而恆指基本情境目標為22,500點(相當預測市盈率8.3倍,料明年企業盈利增長9.3%),料從2023年第二季開始,市場將更快地由價值股轉向增長股。該行預期,踏入第三季,隨著中國逐漸擺脫清零政策和美聯儲加息步伐放緩,利淡因素得到緩和,可能成為主要的市場驅動力。
該行表示,儘管市場情緒有所改善,但料中國股市或要待在2023年下半年才可全面復甦。因為內地正經歷嚴重的新冠肺炎及多區封城,當地的經濟活動降至低位,另外,預期在美國周期性下行的趨勢下,美元短期內將繼續保持強勢,這對外資回流構成威脅。即使內地如常在2023年次季重新開放,當地仍要經歷過渡期,新冠肺炎確診個案激增會擾亂消費和行業供應鏈。
該行料A股和香港市場或會在2023年首季末或第二季進入「二度探底」,其後恢復升勢。
該行將A股非必需消費品評級從「中性」上調至「增持」,並將房地產從「減持」策略性上調至「中性」,而AH股的能源評級下調至「中性」。該行看好騰訊(00700.HK)、美團(03690.HK)、友邦(01299.HK)及金沙中國(01299.HK)等。
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