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《大行報告》花旗:中資互聯網股明年上半年首選京東、拼多多及攜程
花旗發表報告指,今年全球互聯網行業的回報率受到加息和通脹擔憂的影響。展望明年,該行預計中資互聯網股將在重新開放和更容易的競爭環境中引領反彈。在明年上半年,區域輪換應該重新有利於內地互聯網股,而一些全球投資組合可能會保持選擇性,傾向於在亞太互聯網行業上進行更多樣化的投資。 該行指,今個月中資互聯網股價在重新開放的憧憬下出現強勁的反彈,預計勢頭將持續到明年上半年,中間會有一些早期入市者獲利回吐,但更多的投資者將會在回調時的新低位進場。該行更偏好公司具基本面執行力、戰略業務方向和營運競爭力的股票。除基本面因素外,仍可能會有持續的宏觀和監管方面的阻力,暫時影響股價表現。 花旗在明年上半年行業首選為京東(JD.US)(09618.HK)、拼多多(PDD.US)和攜程(TCOM.US)。同時認為美團(03690.HK)和阿里(BABA.US)(09988.HK)是重新開放的潛在受惠者,尤其是阿里的股票在上周強勁反彈後,估值仍然具吸引力。該行指,經歷了充滿挑戰的一年後,明年將進入更輕鬆的階段,該行亦繼續將騰訊(00700.HK)視為核心持股。 該行對京東的評級為「買入」,美股目標價為90美元。通過平衡零售模式,以及供應鏈和第一方物流網絡的優勢,該行相信京東仍然處於有利地位,一旦疫情過去,增長就能重新加速。隨著快速消費品份額鞏固,第三方市場的快速增長和全渠道模式的不斷推動,相信京東的增長勢頭將在今年第四季至明年第一季見底,並從明年第二季開始隨著經濟的重新開放而重新加速。 花旗指,對阿里巴巴(09988.HK)目標價為139港元,予阿里巴巴(BABA.US)目標價為144美元。雖然由於消費需求疲軟,指阿里的基本面短期內仍受壓,但看好阿里是內地經濟重新開放的最大受惠者之一,任何強於預期的宏觀周期性復甦將支持零售商業客戶管理收入重新加速,從而支持明年更強的利潤改善。同時亦看好其強勁的現金流生成能力、股東回報以及全球化努力帶來的上升潛力。 該行維持騰訊買入評級,目標價為413港元,認為公司憑借強大的現金流生成能力和健康的資產負債表,騰訊將繼續在創造商業價值和向股東回報之間取得平衡。同時相信騰訊第三季至第四季可能標誌著盈利不確定性的結束,而明年的銷售收入將重新加速增長。
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