《大行報告》瑞銀料內地明年第二季將會通關 薦阿里、金沙中國等五隻受惠股
瑞銀發表研究報告指,預計2023年的亞洲股市開局會更艱難,尾段則會更強勁。雖然全球通脹上升、美國利率探頂、需求放緩可能會在短期內對市場表現造成壓力,但料這些不利因素將會緩和,從而支持在2023年較後期獲得更好回報。該行建議投資者焦點轉向內需復甦。
該行預計,今年整個亞太地區的人員流動限制持續放寬,惟中國的總體政策仍然會是動態清零。目前東盟市場估值吸引力已降,人員流動已經接近新冠疫情前的水平。在中國,隨著越來越多的信號表明,當地的疫情測試和檢疫相關規則將進一步放寬。該行預計,從明年第二季開始,將有重大程度的開放(significant opening-up),目前中國的消費仍遠低於新冠疫情前的水平,儘管新冠肺炎病例增加為內地帶來不確定性,但預期宏觀指標將從目前的低迷水平中改善。該行表示,在眾多經濟體中,內地及香港是僅有的兩個區域,讓該行預計其2023年增長率將顯著高於2022年。
該行認為,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)和拼多多(PDD.US)是內地消費復甦中具吸引力的投資標的;另百勝中國(09987.HK)(YUMC.US)憑藉其對低線城市的滲透和持續擴張,做好了把握增長的準備;而重新開放邊境以及國內外的旅遊恢復或會令中國中免(01880.HK)和金沙中國(01928.HK)受惠。該行均予這些股票「買入」評級,並且隨著中國逐漸重新開放,這些股票可能會跑贏市場。
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