You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
高盛:美股尚未反映出衰退風險
uSMART盈立智投 11-29 10:38

高盛指出,明年美股將出現更劇烈的波動,下半年將出現復甦。德意志預計,標普指數將在明年第三季度暴跌至3250點,在第四季度開啓反彈,年底回升至4500點。

過去兩個月美股大幅上漲,市場押注隨着通脹見頂,美聯儲鷹派立場將有所鬆動。然而,高盛和德意志銀行均警告稱,不要高興得太早,美股尚未反映出衰退風險,明年難免大起大落、劇烈動盪。

週一,高盛策略師Christian Mueller Glissmann團隊在報告中指出,模型顯示未來12個月美國經濟增長放緩的可能性爲39%,但風險資產的定價只有11%,這增加了明年出現衰退恐慌的風險。

高盛在報告中指出:

考慮到衰退風險升高和增長/通脹組合的不確定性,股票風險溢價似乎較低。

在增長疲軟和波動加劇的情況下,再加上高估值,股票回撤風險較高。標普500指數的遠期市盈率是17.5倍,高於20年平均值15.7倍。

高盛的分析表明:

如果能夠避免經濟衰退,一旦通脹見頂,股市就會反彈。

然而,如果出現經濟收縮,在通脹見頂之後的六到九個月內,美股將平均再下跌10%。

儘管美國經濟衰退風險相對較低,但對金融穩定以及市場壓力指標(如流動性風險和償付能力風險)的擔憂在資產類別中有所增加。

總的來說,高盛更偏向與債券,而不是股票,其表示債券提供了更好的風險/回報,2023年晚些時候與股票的正相關性較低。

高盛策略師上週估計,標普500指數在2023年底將收於4000點,與上上週五收盤時幾乎持平,從現在到明年年底的總體回報率將相對較低。週一,高盛預計明年將出現更劇烈的波動,下半年將出現復甦。

德意志銀行分析師Binky Chadha預計,隨着美國陷入經濟衰退,標普500指數將在明年第三季度暴跌至3250點,較當前水平低19%,然後在第四季度開啓反彈,年底回升至4500點。

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account