惠譽料明年亞太區科技行業在全球經濟風險中惡化 內地互聯網巨頭後續復甦波動
惠譽評估亞太地區科技行業2023年展望為惡化,反映全球經濟放緩疊加通脹高企或會抑制消費者對硬件科技產品的需求。與一般消費品相比,硬件科技產品的需求屬於非剛性。
在三個產業板塊中,惠譽評估亞太地區全球硬件品牌的展望為惡化。預期高通脹將使得該板塊整體盈利能力承壓加重。不過,惠譽授評的亞太地區科技硬件發行人憑借其強大的市場地位和更大的高端業務敞口,應能將上漲的部分投入成本轉嫁予消費者。另預測儘管去槓桿步伐放緩,受評公司的自由現金流中值將持續為正。
惠譽對內地互聯網巨頭和印度IT服務板塊的展望均為中性。惠譽認為,中國經濟環境在短期內相對疲弱的態勢將影響中國互聯網巨頭盈利以及現金生成能力的復甦。雖然中國互聯網巨頭的盈利能力已於2022年第二季觸底,應能從2022年第三季起開始適度地反彈。惟鑑於全球經濟環境的不確定性,預期中國互聯網巨頭後續的復甦速度將較波動。
此外,惠譽2023年印度IT服務板塊的收入增長將減慢,因為美國將從2023年第二季起陷入輕度衰退,歐元區全年GDP和消費支出將呈負增長。不過,印度IT服務的利潤率應能持平,因為成本壓力的紓緩或會被整體市場需求增長放緩所抵銷。然而,惠譽授評的印度IT服務企業具有較大的評級空間,因為它們將繼續受益於較低的槓桿率。
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