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TQQQ顯示“逢低買入”策略並未失效
uSMART盈立智投 11-24 16:51

年內標準普爾500指數下跌16%,納斯達克指數下跌28%,投資者已經放棄了市場快速反彈的幻想。

儘管如此,宣佈“逢低買入”投資策略死亡可能並不合理。這是因爲至少在一個領域,逢低買入並沒有消失。三倍做空納指100 ETF(TQQQ)在今年的流入量榜單上排名第9,共獲得了109億美元的資金淨流入,儘管ETF的價格下跌超過了70%。

當然,其中很多資金流入在今年早些時候,當時投資者仍然期望市場會迅速好轉,但其中近30億美元的資金流入是在過去三個月中出現的。

從2020年的COVID-19股市低點到2021年底,TQQQ的價格上漲了近9倍。今年雖然經歷了重挫,但是相較2020年低點仍然有1.6倍的漲幅。相比之下,無槓桿的納指100ETF(QQQ)同期上漲了68%。這很好地說明瞭這樣一個事實,即在超過一天的時間段內,“3x”倍數不一定成立,這是因爲每日再平衡背後的數學原理,也就是我們常說的槓桿損耗。

幸運的是,對於在2021年之前購買TQQQ的人來說,ETF上漲得如此之多,以至於即使今年出現回調,它們仍然處於盈利狀態。對於那些在2021年或2022年上半年購買的人來說,情況並非如此。與此同時,任何本月或上個月購買的人都可能對他們的購買價格感到滿意,至少目前是這樣,該時間段內的任何買入都接近TQQQ今年的低點。

與無槓桿ETF的投資者可以死扛虧損不同,像TQQQ這樣的槓桿ETF是“路徑依賴的”。大幅下跌可能會削弱該基金,使其難以恢復,即使納斯達克指數最終迴歸。這就是爲什麼像這樣的產品被認爲是適合那些風險承受能力高的人的交易工具。

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