《內地樓市》惠譽料明年內地房市銷售按年保持平穩
惠譽評級大中華區房地產評級主管金泰倫指,今年首十個月內地新房銷售按年下跌28%,行業銷售按年負增長的情況已長達15個月,本月的銷售轉為穩定,相信現有的政策方向已有穩定的作用,若按月銷售可維持現有的水平,預期2023年的銷售可與2022年按年達到平穩或5%上落空間。
他指出,在政策扶持下,個別國企回到按年及按月轉負為正的水平,惟民營房企的銷售端未有明顯好轉,平均按年下跌約40%。他表示,在預計民營房企佔比行業約80%下,他們目前主要目標是去庫存及完成現有項目,現階段沒有投資新項目的條件,相信房企投資低微的情況會繼續。
他提到,雖然近期有幫扶政策密集出台,短期內對融資影響十分正面,但中長期仍然依賴新房銷售的大範圍復甦,才有持續改善民企及房地產板塊的流動性,目前仍未能預測何時到達拐點。
金氏強調,新房銷售大規圍復甦才是影響對行業及民企的恢復最大關鍵,而購房者的需求及信心回暖很大程度基於就業前景及經濟環境的擔憂,可能依賴到底中國的防疫措施能否出現放鬆情況,否則現有政策雖具穩定房企流動性作用,仍難言能成為行業拐點。
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