調整過後，如何看待資金面未來走向
上週債市全面走熊，資金利率先升後降，在經歷了劇烈調整後，後續資金面如何演繹成爲債市焦點。考慮到贖回與到期對銀行間流動性總量影響較弱且央行調控仍存，預計理財贖回的衝擊將逐步消退，但資金面仍然難回年中寬鬆態勢。短期來看，預計資金面的波動將減弱，驟然收緊的概率較低，但中樞仍將向政策利率逐步貼近，建議保持短組合久期，不要過多博弈市場反彈。
來源：明晰筆談
上週債市調整，資金利率先升後降
上週債市在防疫政策優化、寬地產支持政策發力、資金面偏緊的影響下全面走熊，周內調整呈現大起大落的狀態。雖然央行增大逆回購投放，但債市驅動仍偏向於情緒面，悲觀預期下，上週五10年期國債到期收益率收於2.83%，全周累計上行9bps。11月16日當天由於部分債基和理財產品面臨較大的贖回壓力，不得不被動拋售部分資產，1年期AAA級同業存單收益率調整的幅度近20bps，達到2.65%。此後在央行的調控下，利率雖然有所回落，但依然處於年內高位。
理財贖回的衝擊將逐步消退
贖回與到期對銀行間流動性總量影響較弱，因爲理財贖回不會導致資金消失，在理財變成存款之後，資金實際上到了銀行自營部門，銀行間市場的流動性總量並不會明顯縮水。從理財到期來看，整體情況同今年前三個季度的水平大體一致，而攤餘債基集中進入開放期的影響料將有限。此外，央行連續多日加大逆回購資金投放量，維穩態度較爲明確，流動性緊張情況得到有效緩解。
資金面難回年中寬鬆態勢
其一，流動性被動投放減少：央行利潤上繳已經結束，財政支出有所放緩，存量留抵稅額集中退還完成；
其二，總量工具讓位結構性工具：政策目標從寬貨幣轉向寬信用，後續的工作重點是結構性工具的落地生效，而央行加大對通脹關注、防範資金空轉等因素會限制總量政策工具的空間；
其三，銀行負債端壓力仍存：11月同業存單到期規模是下半年高點，信貸投放發力會增大負債端資金匹配的要求，而存款利率下行也會側面加大攬儲難度，加劇“存款搬家”。
債市策略：
短期來看，預計資金面的波動將減弱，驟然收緊的概率較低；但中樞難以迴歸低位，1年期同業存單收益率很難再回到2.5%以下的水平，DR007可能繼續圍繞1.7%的中樞水平，在上下10bps範圍內波動。對於債市策略而言，寬幅波動走熊後債市或階段性重回平靜，但長債利率中樞上移的趨勢仍未結束，建議保持短組合久期，不要過多博弈市場反彈。
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