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《大行報告》大摩:內地監管機構近期大力支持開發商流動性 可緩解市場對民企內房現金流緊張擔憂
摩根士丹利發表研究報告指,內地監管機構近期對發展商流動性的支持,應該會緩解市場對民企現金流緊張的憂慮。人民銀行昨天(14日)連同銀保監和住建部下發通知,容許內銀向優質內房發出保函,讓優質房企獲取預售資金。該行表示,對當局短期內再推第三項支援措施感到驚喜。 該行表示,不會將寬鬆政策解讀為監管機構改變對內房行業長期立場,相反,密集地推出政策表明,政府對未來數個季度的發展商短期流動性的擔憂加劇。該行認為,這三項政策的綜合作用應該會部分緩解特別是私營發展商的現金流壓力。鑑於民企的現金流趨緊,這些措施被認為有利於民營企業,但關鍵在於措施的實施速度和範圍。考慮到疲弱的房地產市場和金融機構對行業風險偏好有所降低,認為準國企和優質民企可能是未來幾個月的政策主要受益者。 報告提到,由於政策實施仍需時間觀察,考慮到疫情復甦和經濟疲弱,今年第四季至明年首季的房地產銷售復甦或仍將緩慢,惟相信最艱難的時期應已過去。在投資者情緒改善的情況下,相關股票在短期內或會繼續做出積極反應,但如果沒有實貨市場的強勁反彈,升勢將難以持續。該行重申,通過增強買家信心來恢復房地產銷售是扭轉行業下行趨勢的唯一途徑,維持行業符合大市的看法。該行首選仍然是華潤置地(01109.HK)、保利發展(600048.SH)和中國海外(00688.HK)。
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