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《大行報告》大摩下調旭輝(00884.HK)目標價至0.69元 評級「與大市同步」
阿思達克 11-10 11:15
摩根士丹利發表研究報告指,旭輝(00884.HK)的境外債務重組將導致其房地產銷售、項目交付和在岸融資的嚴重中斷,令其盈利增長低於同行。 該行指,基於樓市情緒低迷,債務重組消息或將加劇對其交付失敗的憂慮,從而進一步削弱集團下季度的房地產銷售。集團10月的銷售額按月下降10%,因為該公司自9月下旬以來出現負面消息。該行將其今明兩年的合同銷售預測分別下調20%和22%,分別至1,300億元人民幣和1,410億元人民幣。該行預計,集團的現金餘額將在今年底降至約240億元人民幣,其中約70%因地方政府更嚴格的要求而鎖定在託管賬戶中,現金餘額較該行早前的預測少36%,此外,隨著離岸債務重組,相信其在岸融資上或會更加困難,並且需要承擔更高的利息成本。 基於平均售價疲弱和潛在的資產減值損失,該行將集團2022至24年的收入預測下調3至5%,並將毛利率預測進一步下調至約18%。在更高的利息支出下,該行將其核心盈利預測分別下調13%、5%、及3%,至50億元人民幣、59億元人民幣和62億元人民幣。此外,由於現金流緊張,預計未來幾年不會有任何股息。其目標價由0.8元下調至0.69元,評級為「與大市同步」。
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