《大行報告》瑞銀:網易(NTES.US)與動視暴雪(ATVI.US)合作存困難 影響市場情緒惟不完全感意外
瑞銀髮表研究報告指,網易(NTES.US)與動視暴雪(ATVI.US)在續簽許可協議上或未能達成雙方均滿意的交易,而目前的協議將於2023年1月到期。若消息屬實,將有多個遊戲受到影響,而最近推出的「暗黑破壞神永生不朽」(Diablo Immortal)則是單獨的長期協議,因此不會受到影響。ATVI又披露,這項在中國的許可協議佔其2021年收入貢獻約3%,意味着2022年對網易的收入貢獻介乎約中單位數,而考慮到與ATVI的收入分成,利潤貢獻應該會更低。
該行認爲,終止許可協議將對市場情緒產生負面影響,但基於有報道稱ATVI和網易於2022年8月終止了移動版「魔獸世界」(World of Warcraft)的合作,這對市場而言並不完全令人意外。該行給予網易目標價120美元及評級「買入」。
該行認爲,網易近期進口IP的主要遊戲缺乏總收入可持續性,表明了該模式存在侷限性。集團沒有完全的酌情權來定期發佈內容更新,限制了這些遊戲的壽命。相比之下,網易旗下的「大話西遊」、「陰陽師」、「無盡的拉格朗日」等自有IP的遊戲,相比進口遊戲,具有更好的可持續性和可能更高的生命週期價值。該行認爲,集團正在進行必要的戰略投資,以進一步增強其內部研發能力,儘管基於開發週期,這些投資需要時間才能轉化爲發佈新遊戲。在過去12個月的強勁表現後,該行認爲,集團在新品發佈方面或會進入一個相對平靜的時期。
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