牛市集結令繼續發出!恆指勁升650點,恆科指飆漲超5%,港股穩了嗎?
今日,港股低開高走,截至發稿,恆指漲超4%,大漲650點報16811點,恆生科技指數飆漲5.6%報3448點,國指漲4.1%,盤面上,科網股、地產及大金融板塊領漲。
ETF方面,港股漲幅擴大,港股科技30ETF、恆生科技基金ETF、港股通互聯網ETF分別大漲4.19%、4.10%、4.05%。
港股上週“史詩級反彈”
上週,“傳聞牛”引領港A股迎來全面反彈的一週,其中港股的漲幅一馬當先,恆生指數收盤16161.14點,上漲約8.73%,恆生科指的周漲幅更是高達15%。港股通上週更是淨買入315億元。
值得一提的還是,離岸人民幣兌美元匯率表現更是不甘示弱,CNH 11月4日大漲超2,000基點,創有記錄以來最大單日漲幅。
中概互聯網指數KWEB更是上演了有史以來風頭無兩的單週行情。追蹤中國ADR的金龍中國PGJ錄得10多年來最亮眼的單週漲幅。
但是週末的國務院聯防聯控機制新聞發佈會略微帶有“利空”的色彩。新聞發佈會明確了最新的防疫政策基調,明確“堅持‘外防輸入、內防反彈’總策略和‘動態清零’總方針”,“嚴格執行第九版防控方案”。
但是細微之處的變化也非常值得關注,國務院聯防聯控機制新聞發佈會,同時也強調了“堅決清理和制止各種形式的簡單化、一刀切、‘層層加碼’行爲”,避免過度防疫。
因此總的來看,“動態清零”總方針不變,但過度防疫的措施有望改善,因此企業的業績改善預期增強。
這也就是爲什麼今日的港股低開,隨着投資者進一步消化這個消息,三大指數開始強勢拉昇。
另外,美聯儲上週議息會議釋放鷹派信號,雖然暗示加息節奏或放緩,但話鋒一轉,指向加息終點更高,加息時間更長,這意味着美元的繼續強勢上行會給港股的估值修復帶來助力。
但是雖然10月非農數據26.1萬,遠高於市場預期的20萬,但是,失業率出現反彈,而同時勞動參與率並未出現明顯波動,顯示出美國強勁的勞動力就業市場或許開始出現放緩的態勢,疊加地方聯儲幾位主席對放緩加息的預期引導,美元指數調頭下行也給港股帶來上行的動力。
對於港股後續的走勢,天風證認爲,歷經前期大幅波動後,當前市場環境對於潛在催化劑的反應相對敏感。外部環境整體呈現改善態勢,中國科技互聯網企業估值處於歷史相對低位,基本面修復趨勢較明確,中期估值性價比較高。
短期重點關注影響企業收入加速拐點的宏觀前置指標、以及市場流動性/風險偏好的影響因素(包括美聯儲加息步伐、綠燈投資案」、中概審計進展)。
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