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美股是否已觸底?
uSMART盈立智投 11-04 20:42

當市場價格下跌時,許多投資者的第一反應是堅持並等待反彈。但是,如果下跌持續的時間極其長,他們對出現更大損失的恐懼可能會超過這種希望。當足夠多的投資者達到該臨界點並賣出時,其結果被稱爲市場投降。

1.如何判斷市場是否已投降?

目前很難判斷這一點,很多低谷之後是反彈。一些觀察者在波動性飆升和股票看漲看跌比率上升等指標中尋找接近投降的跡象,即投資者猜測會再次出現拋售而將他們的投資組合進行對衝。股票基金大規模流出資金通常被視爲投降已經到來的信號。

美國銀行10月發佈了一份關於市場投降的報告,其中一張圖表顯示,歷史上現金餘額激增一直被當作市場看漲的信息。一旦幾乎所有想要賣出的人都已拋售,股市就不太可能進一步下跌,投資者囤積的資金最終將重新進入股市。投降可能只發生在股市,也可能同時出現於債市和大宗商品市場。

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2.投降是否等同於市場底部?

通常不是。熊市可以持續數年,投降只有往回看才變得明顯。如果有足夠多的投資者一直在尋找大幅拋售之後重新入場以逢低買入的機會,這意味着並非每個人都對股市的情況完全感到厭惡。

3.有什麼市場投降的例子?

2008年全球金融危機之後就出現了一次投降,它也表明了確定市場是否觸底有多難。標普500指數在2007年10月見頂後急劇下跌,並於2009年3月達到最低點,比高點低57%。不過,根據Bespoke Investment Group的數據,在這個過程中,許多交易員因錯誤地認爲股市已經投降而遭受損失,因爲標普500指數出現了十多次漲幅至少爲5%的反彈。

2008年11月,隨着金融市場的壓力達到頂峯,而投資者已從股票基金中撤出數十億美元,恐慌指數VIX飆升至80以上。

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