《大行報告》瑞銀料內地「雙11」線上消費略優市場預期 平台利潤率或驚喜上行
瑞銀發表報告表示,透過渠道了解內地「雙11」電商節最新情況後,料內地今次線上消費可能略好於市場預期,根據與消費者品牌和經銷商的溝通,該行認為零售銷售,至少是線上部份可能會保持穩定,而日常用品、美容和保健品。到目前為止總體交易一直符合預期,這對許多人來說,今次「雙11」按年增長略快於「618」時期。
代理商預計抖音和拼多多(PDD.US)將從阿里巴巴-SW(09988,.HK)和京東-SW(09618.HK)手中獲得商品成交金額(GMV)份額。一個代理商預計抖音的份額最終會接近阿里巴巴,另一個代理商則預計抖音的GMV會翻倍。
事實上,一位代理商表示,一些較新的品牌在抖音上已經比阿里巴巴更大,因為在抖音上推出新品牌更容易。商家對拼多多品牌的GMV的看法也比該行預期的要好。
瑞銀表示,平台利潤率仍可能意外上行,據該行調查顯示,平台可能會撤回對某些類別商家的補貼。代理商認為平台處於強勢地位,預計平台會擴大利潤,而一些代理商將會受到影響。
該行估計抖音的使用率略高(部分原因是具多頻道網絡),比相似的阿里巴巴和拼多多略高,並料京東會略低。不過,考慮到抖音的增長和規模,代理商仍然願意與抖音合作。
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