《本地樓市》標普料本港明年住宅樓價將下跌5%至10%
評級機構標準普爾認為,由於經濟表現疲弱,本港住宅樓市進入下行周期,本年至今住宅樓價已下跌約10%。在預期經濟仍將面對不利風險下,標普估計明年本港住宅樓價將下跌5%至10%。
標普全球企業評級董事Edward Chan表示,雖然過往加息周期與樓價表現未必有大關係,但今次美聯儲加息幅度大,而且非常急促,損害本港住宅買家的購買力及情緒,令市場出現觀望態度。即使今年第三季屯門及粉嶺的上車新盤銷售情況仍然良好,但較大型及貴價單位的表現欠佳,例如一啟德新盤首批只售出約三成。
他預期,一旦本港經濟狀況有改善,住宅樓價亦會趨穩,因發展商的私宅供應有紀律,且中小型單位的市場需求穩固。不過,由於內地及香港仍有疫情旅遊限制,在可以完全通關前,估計中高檔住宅市場難有明顯反彈。
另外,《施政報告》宣布合資格外來人才居港七年後,可退還在港置業的額外印花稅,Edward Chan相信對希望留港發展的人才而言是好事,但由於新來人才在港置業後需居港滿七年才可退還稅項,因此料對樓市的即時推動作用非常小。
寫字樓及零售物業方面,標普全球企業評級副董事Wilson Ling提到,本港寫字樓市場面對供應高企及需求減少的問題,今明兩年的甲級寫字樓新樓面供應超過500萬平方呎,遠高於2020年及去年的約100萬平方呎,加上經濟下行,預期寫字樓租賃在未來一年會面臨壓力。至於零售物業,他估計必需消費零售未來一年租金壓力有限,但奢侈消費的復甦之路則仍然難行。
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