《大行報告》中金:南向資金年初至今流入2,672億人民幣 騰訊及藥明生物受青睞
中金發表策略報告,年初以來,雖然港股出現較大波動,但南向資金一直保持整體流入態勢。在外部金融條件持續收緊、地緣局勢更為錯綜復雜的背景下,南下資金持續穩步流入。三季度南向資金流入939億人民幣,年初至今流入規模達到2,672億人民幣。
該行指,進入10月以來南向資金保持每日淨流入趨勢,且流入規模呈現逆勢加速的勢態。第三季度主要買入傳媒娛樂、醫療保健、電訊業、汽車與房地產,新經濟龍頭例如騰訊(00700.HK)、藥明生物(02269.HK)、理想汽車(02015.HK)等獲持續受到青睞。
與此同時,中金觀察到7月以來海外主動型基金流出有所加速,可能是近期港股持續波動背後的主要因素(《港股流動性與持股情況分析》)。往前看,該行認為,港股當前資金面情況反映的是市場面臨的「三重壓力」,即美聯儲緊縮影響流動性,國內增長影響盈利預期,以及地緣局勢影響風險偏好。短期來看,美聯儲在高通脹壓力下或將維持鷹派立場,意味著短期內全球資金避險情緒或將持續,而當前外資主動型機構大幅低配港股情況緩解或需要在後兩者上找到轉機。
中金表示所幸的是,港股市場已經具備幾項優勢,這意味著海外中資股可能展現出更強韌性。如果內外部環境有所改善,港股市場未來反彈力度有望更大。向前看,該行認為港股短期可能維持震蕩格局,但或處於底部區域。配置思路上,短期以高股息作為貶值和風險的對衝,而優質成長、特別是可能受益於未來內需和政策放鬆修復的消費成長可以擇機吸納、等待時機。
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