期權大單 | 亞馬遜業績預示經濟衰退,阿裏巴巴出現看漲大單
一、期權異動

10月28日,美股Amazon、Apple、Meta等標的出現了期權成交量上的較大變化,分別爲日常成交量的4.3、2.3、3倍。
科技巨頭上週接連“業績殺”,Meta淨利潤同比腰斬,谷歌增速回到2013年最低水平,亞馬遜業績遜於預期,蘋果則成爲“黑暗財報周”的大亮點。蘋果營收和利潤均超預期,績後周五收漲近8%,市值一夜暴漲約1761億美元,大摩分析師指“蘋果仍然是最好的持股之一”。
阿裏巴巴出現2023年1月20日到期、行權價爲65美元的看漲期權大單。淘寶“雙十一”預售在10月24日20點開啓,直播間預售火爆。國泰君安證券認爲阿裏即將公佈的最新業績中,核心商業利潤率將維持穩定,新業務預計持續減虧並驅動利潤率回暖。
財報顯示,亞馬遜三季度營業利潤絕對值下滑48%,營業利潤率僅爲2%,近年來最低。更重要的是,亞馬遜給出的四季度營收指引在1400億美元至1480億美元之間,同比增長僅2%至8%;營業利潤預計在0至40億美元之間,表明低利潤率還在持續。
要知道四季度是電商旺季,有聖誕節,有黑五促銷,有元旦,這樣都帶不動營收,可見亞馬遜對美國消費市場的信心嚴重不足。由此推導,我們可以判斷美國的宏觀經濟形勢真的不容樂觀,明年一季度開始衰退,或許並不是危言聳聽。
二、總成交量前10
美東時間上週五(10月28日),美股全線收漲,道指收漲2.59%,標普500指數漲2.46%,納指漲2.87%。期權市場方面,交易活躍度大增,期權成交總量爲47,442,174張,前值39,094,088張,遠高於90日平均成交量37,200,503。其中,看跌期權合約佔比47%,看漲期權合約佔比53%。

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