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一文綜合大行對比亞迪(01211.HK)公布季績後最新評級、目標價及觀點
比亞迪(01211.HK)今早股價向上,盤中高見177.6元一度彈高7.2%,最新報176.4元升6.4%。花旗發表報告表示,比亞迪第三季盈利及核心利均符合市場預期,指其綜合毛利率按季上升4.6個百分點至19%,屬業績亮點之一,亦指其自由現金流1達197億人民幣按年升130%,維持「買入」評級及目標價640元。 比亞迪上周五(28日)收市後公布第三季度業績,純利按年升3.5倍至57.16億元人民幣,每股收益1.97元人民幣。季度營業收入按年升1.16倍至1,170.81億人民幣。首三季淨利潤按年升2.81倍至93.11億元人民幣,每股收益3.2元人民幣,累計營業收入按年升84%至2,676.88億元人民幣。公司早前預計第三季度淨利潤介乎55.05-59.05億元人民幣,首三季淨利潤預計介乎91至95億元人民幣。 【季績符預期 毛利率強勁】 高盛發表報告認為,比亞迪上季業績優預期市佔顯著增長及其單位經濟改善推動毛利率擴張,經營開支比率則因競爭環境加劇及研發開支增加而上升。該行維持比亞迪「買入」評級及420元目標價,重申比亞迪H股為其「確信買入」名單。 大和表示,比亞迪第三季業績符合公司指引,決定下調對比亞迪目標價,由380元降至328元,維持「買入」評級,基於目前市場情緒疲弱,又預期在高基數效應下,2023年以後的新能源車銷售增長將回落。該行下調比亞迪新能源車部門企業價值(EV/EBITDA)倍數預測,由50倍降至18倍,電動車電池企業價值倍數預期亦由100倍降至50倍。該行同時上調對比亞迪2022至2024年每股盈利預測66%至94%,上調對比亞迪同期新能源車銷售預測16%至21%,料今年至2024年分別銷售190萬、300萬及330萬輛。該行亦預期,電動車電池、太陽能及半導體將在2024起為比亞迪帶來新增長動力。 富瑞下調對比亞迪目標價,由354元降至242元,基於下調對比亞迪2025年市盈率預測,由20倍降至15倍,考慮市場在2025年競爭加劇。該行預期比亞迪今明兩年新能源車銷售分別達190萬至270萬,反應生產能力提速及出口增長樂觀。該行料比亞迪明年及2024年出口銷售分別為17萬及30萬輛,亦相信比亞迪出口銷售的盈利率較內地銷售更高,基於享受價格溢價。 ----------------------------------- 本網最新綜合7間券商對其投資評級及目標價: 券商│投資評級│目標價 花旗│買入│640元 高盛│買入(確信買入名單)│420元 瑞信│跑贏大市│410元 野村│買入│356元 瑞銀│買入│345元 大和│買入│380元->328元 富瑞│買入│354元->242元 券商│觀點 花旗│季度盈利率勝預期,淨利潤按季升逾倍 高盛│季績超預期 瑞信│季度淨利潤創新高 野村│符合預期的強勁季績 瑞銀│季績重申其於內地大眾電動車市場的盈利率領導地位 大和│季績符合指引 富瑞│季績顯著勝預期,確認盈利展望
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