經濟學家：美聯儲11月再次加息75基點
接受媒體調查的經濟學家們預測，美聯儲將在11月2日會議上連續第四次加息75個基點，至3.75%-4.00%。他們表示，在通脹回落至當前水平的一半左右之前，美聯儲不應暫停加息。
幾十年來最激進的緊縮週期帶來了更大的衰退風險。經濟學家預測，美國一年內陷入衰退的概率中值爲65%，概率高於此前的45%。
大多數經濟學家預計美聯儲12月將加息50個基點，到2022年底，聯邦基金利率將升至4.25%-4.50%。這與美聯儲的點陣圖預測中值相符。
超過一半的受訪經濟學家預計，聯邦基金利率預計將在2023年第一季度達到4.50%-4.75%或更高的峯值。最終利率的風險偏向上行。
美聯儲官員已經開始考慮何時應該放慢加息步伐，因爲他們在評估加息的影響，任何加息舉措都需要好幾個月的時間才能生效。
目前美國通脹率高於8%。經濟學家預計，當通脹降至4.4%時，美聯儲將考慮暫停加息。
調查顯示，經濟學家預計美國通脹率要到2023年第二季度纔會減半，2022年、2023年和2024年的平均通脹率分別爲8.1%、3.9%和2.5%。
德意志銀行高級美國經濟學家Brett Ryan表示:“美聯儲官員稱，只有在有‘明確而令人信服的’證據顯示通脹放緩後，纔有可能暫停加息。”
Ryan表示:“隨着美聯儲繼續積極收緊政策，以遏制持續的通脹，我們預計明年第三季度可能開始溫和衰退，因爲實際增長將降爲負值，失業率將大幅上升。”
經濟學家預計明年美國經濟僅增長0.4%，而今年平均增長1.7%。自美聯儲3月開始加息以來，受訪經濟學家持續下調了這一預測。
經濟學家預計美國今年平均失業率爲3.7%，2023年和2024年將分別升至4.4%和4.8%，較此前的預期有所上升，但明顯低於以前衰退中出現的高點。
超過一半的受訪經濟學家預計，未來一年美國失業率大幅上升的可能性很高。
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