《大行報告》華泰證券升新東方在線(01797.HK)目標價至31.31元 指電商屬性顯現 估值應體現
新東方在線(01797.HK)今早股價逆市抽上,盤中曾高見35.1元一度彈高10%,半日收報34.9元升9.4%。華泰證券近日發表報告表示,9月至國慶期間,新東方在線旗下東方甄選矩陣號總粉絲數、商品銷售額(GMV)、帶貨轉化率、自營品GMV佔比等指標整體維持增長,指公司並不單一追求GMV增長,而是注重供應鏈和服務能力建設,投流較少,因該行下調對觀看量及日均GMV 的長期預測。
該行指,考慮疫情反覆對留學培訓需求的影響,下調對大學業務的增長預測。綜合上述,該行下調新東方在線於預測2023年至2024年純利預測分別至6.67億、9.62億及10.66億人民幣(前值爲7.54億、11.01億及14.46億人民幣)。考慮到公司持續優化選品、物流、服務、全渠道佈局等電商核心能力,商業模式的稀缺性,業務增速相對消費板塊中的阿爾法屬性(阿爾法消費者是指賦予產品理念、使用產品並最終向他人推薦的一個消費羣體),微升對其目標價,由31.04元升至31.31元,維持「持有」評級。
報告指,據「蟬媽媽」資料,9月東方甄選直播間日均觀看人次約1,514萬,較8月下降約13%;新增粉絲142萬人,略高於8月(138萬人);7月、8月及9月帶貨轉化率分別爲1.4%、1.9%及2.6%,穩定上升。對衝效應下,該行估計9月後各矩陣號日均GMV或在2,400萬附近緩慢上行。公司並未一味追求GMV增長,而是更多專注於直播電商能力建設。物流方面,9月初公司與順豐、京東達成緊密合作,計劃在五大城市建立20個自營產品倉庫,倉配能力進一步優化。
該行指,東方甄選的電商屬性越發明顯,多渠道發力更具靈活性。根據「抖查查」數據,截至今年10月14日,東方甄選主賬號直播間已累計銷售4,605種商品,商品櫥窗涉及食品飲料、生鮮蔬果、日用百貨、圖書音像、廚衛家電、美妝護膚等十餘個大類,SKU(存貨單位)豐富度已實現了線上商城的效果,而數月間增粉數千萬的速度也呈現出優質電商平臺早期高速增長的特徵。此外,除依靠抖音平臺目前「貨找人」的匹配效率優勢外,公司也已拓展淘寶、京東等電商平臺,進一步提升「人找貨」的能力,銷售多渠道發力,較單一電商平臺有更高的業務靈活性。
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