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《大行報告》美銀證券:施政報告或提振短期情緒 惟不足以扭轉樓價跌勢
阿思達克 10-14 10:47
美銀證券發表研究報告指,相信樓市將是下周三(19日)公布的施政報告主要議題,預期針對需求降溫措施(特別是吸引人才移居香港)的潛在放寬,可能會在短期內為本地發展股帶來溫和提振作用,料新地(00016.HK)將會最受惠。然而,該行認為預計放寬政策的力度不足以扭轉樓價的下滑趨勢,而內地的防疫措施則是一個重要因素。 報告提及,據《彭博通訊社》報道,政府可能放寬對非永久居民購房者需要支付的15%印花稅規定,該等人士在香港停留一定年期後可能會獲得退還部分或全部稅款。該行認為,根據新計劃移居香港的人才帶來的更多住房需求可能會部分扭轉近期人口下降的情況,又預期在港的非永久居民相當於5.7萬個潛在買樓需求,且他們的購買力亦會更高。 該行認為,政府放寬雙重印花稅(DSD)的可能性不大,完全取消買家印花稅(BSD)和額外印花稅(SSD)的可能性亦較低,另料政府將減少手續,以加快土地轉換和建築計劃的審批。基於預期美國聯邦基金利率在2023年可能達到5%,該行維持對今明兩年本港樓價累跌15%至20%的預測。
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