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《大行報告》匯豐研究下調東方海外(00316.HK)及中遠海控(01919.HK)目標價 維持「減持」評級
匯豐研究發表研報指,自7月底以來,即期運費下跌速度加快,幅度超出預期,表明需求大幅疲軟,按照目前按周下跌7.5%速度,預期集裝箱運價可能會在年底重回2019年的水平。 該行表示,市場需求預期弱、擁堵狀況較快獲得緩解,以及價格競下,預期即期運價將提前半年時間於明年中見底,下調2023年需求預測,並提高2022至2024年的有效供應預測,預計上海集裝箱運價指數於明年中期見觸底後,行業盈利能力亦將在明年下半年觸底,將2022至2024年行業利潤預測下調最多51%,並下調股息預期,尤其是2023年。 匯豐研究指,今年第三季航運股盈利仍將保持彈性,但第四季及之後相信有下行空間,維持對東方海外(00316.HK)及中遠海控(01919.HK)的「減持」評級,目標價分別下調至115元及8.2元。海豐國際(01308.HK)目標價則降至26元,維持「買入」評級不變。 匯豐研究指,參考過去週期,航運股股價較運價提早三個月跌至谷底,因此預測股價可能會在2023年第一季末觸底。
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