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《大行報告》花旗下調港燈-SS(02638.HK)目標價至4.5元 評級「沽售」
花旗發表研究報告,維持港燈-SS(02638.HK)的「沽售」評級,將其目標價由5.75元下調22%至4.5元。以最新目標價計算,其2022至24年的股息收益率為每年7%。自2014年1月上市以來,集團的股息收益率比10年期美國國債收益率高2個百分點。假設今年第四季至明年首季再加息150個基點,預計在美元利率上升的情況下,香港公用事業股的評級將進一步下調。在香港公用事業股中,粵海投資(00270.HK)今年收益率最高,為10.3%。 該行料美聯儲將在今年11月加息75個基點,並於12月加息50個基點,及於明年2月再加息25個基點。在利率上升的環境下,10年期美國國債收益率在未來12個月,或進一步上升至4.5%-5%。該行指,美元利率上升推動10年期美國國債收益率進一步上漲,意味著港燈更高的股息收益率,或轉化為股價進一步下跌。 該行提到,根據集團與香港政府的協議,集團在2033年之前的固定資產回報率為8.2%。該行認為,其固定資產基數在未來幾年或每年增長4-5%,主要是由於新增燃氣發電廠空間有限。該行假設其2022至24年的每股派息保持在0.32元,因資產基礎增加帶來的增量利潤,將被資本支出增加和更多利息支出所抵銷。
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