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《大行報告》中信証券:判斷港股基本面下修已告一段落 仍看好配置價值
阿思達克 10-10 12:29
中信証券發表港股策略報告表示,港股上市公司2022年中業績披露已基本結束,經調整,該行統計了恆生綜指中493家上市公司的中報結果。整體看今年上半年恆生綜指營收和淨利潤按年增速為5.2%及-3.3%。板塊業績分化明顯,而國內散點疫情擴散、監管常態化,海外對中概股及部分如科技、醫藥企業制裁持續發酵等風險進一步壓制新經濟板塊業績。另外,受地產信用風險拖累,大金融板塊上半年盈利按年回落(主要是地產、保險等),僅內銀板塊錄得小幅正增長。 從2022年盈利預測角度看,當前恆生綜指2022年預測盈利及營收增速分別為2%和0.8%,相對6月底顯著下修10.6和6.7個百分點。但該行判斷港股基本面下修已告一段落,尤其在未來國內經濟優勢相對海外主要發達國家日趨明顯的背景下,該行仍看好港股市場的配置價值。 中信証券指,近期(特別是7月以來)內地經濟基本面修復不及預期,散點疫情頻發、地產交付問題等更是進一步拖累了企業業績表現。根據萬得一致預期測算的當前恆生綜指2022年預測盈利及營收增速分別為2%和0.8%,相對6月底顯著下修10.6和6.7個百分點。細分板塊來看,絕大多數板塊相對中報期開始前業績均呈下修趨勢,互聯網服務、醫療器械、汽車零部件、消費電子等成長板塊預測2022年盈利增速則下修明顯。但往後看,在國內疫情狀況有所好轉,經濟改善信號已現,穩增長政策持續發力的背景下,基本面預期已經企穩。尤其在未來國內經濟優勢相對海外主要發達國家日趨明顯的背景下,該行仍看好港股市場的配置價值。 該行指,雖然近期港股業績下修趨勢明顯,但在國內疫情狀況有所好轉,經濟改善信號已現,穩增長政策持續發力的背景下,基本面預期已經企穩。當前測算恆生綜合指數2023年盈利增速達到12.2%,顯著高於標普500指數的2023年預測盈利增速,這將是在近三年裡港股盈利增速首次超越美股。
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