《大行報告》大摩:內地國慶假期旅客人數按年跌18% 較中秋檔跌17%更弱
美團-W(03690.HK)今早(10日)股價捱沽,最新報162.4元跌6.1%、攜程-S(09961.HK)股價下滑5%報218元,而同程旅行(00780.HK)挫6%。航空股亦向下,南航(01055.HK)走低4.6%報4.35元,國航(00753.HK)跌4.5%。
摩根士丹利發表報告表示,中國內地今年國慶假期(10月1日至7日)的旅客人數4.22億人次,按年下跌18%(相當於2019年61%水平),按降幅計亦弱於今年9月的中秋假期旅客按年跌17%,並估計在中共舉行二十大會議後,內地旅客於11月才會恢復復甦。
該行指,國慶假期旅客遜遜預期,相信是當局更嚴格的旅行控制、和10月3日起新冠疫情重燃(內蒙古、天津市、四川、重慶市、新疆、廣東省、湖北省、上海市、北京市等)。在短途旅行的推動下,酒店板塊的表現優於交通板塊,佔攜程(TCOM.US)總訂單量的65%。根據交通運輸部的數據,鐵路和航空旅客數量分別按年下降42%和49%(分別為2019年水平的35%和37%)。
大摩指同程(00780.HK)的市佔份額與以往相似,估計國慶節期間酒店晚間入住按年下降少於10%(與2019年的水平相比下降個位數),與中秋節相似,已售客房平均房價(ADR)也按年小幅下降並保持在200元人民幣以上。該行認為由於需求疲軟,補貼減少,相信提成率按年增長。至於航空和鐵路票務量按年增長可能好於行業5至10個百分點。
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