建銀國際料內地車市10月之後才可改善 芯片短缺下 估利潤率至明年次季前不能恢復
建銀國際發表內地汽車行業報告,指對中國汽車市場短期面臨挑戰,維持對2022年餘下時間的車市的謹慎看法,對今年第三季度的看法較第四季度更為謹慎。儘管內地就新冠防疫措施較過往已不那般嚴格封鎖、以及為跨省旅行和物流提供更大靈活性措施,但該行預計要在今年10月之後才會出現實質性改善,最早在2023年第二季度完全恢復。
該行指,基對內地汽車製造商今年第二季時定下過於樂觀的目標,這次在設定季度和年度產銷目標時採取更加務實和謹慎的態度。在此過程中,該行預計內地汽車代工製造商將給經銷商留出足夠的喘息空間,以管理庫存和銷售策略,而芯片組短缺繼續困擾該行業,但影響主要是進口汽車的供應。因芯片主要用於生產了本地車型,該行預計2022財年第四季度的銷量會顯著提高,但利潤率在2023年第二季度之前不太可能恢復。
建銀國際預計內地汽車行業的利潤率在今年下半年面臨壓力,雖然對本季後期的展望總體上屬積極的。由於預期11至12月旺季可能會出台更多支持性政策,市場情緒強勁,但全球供應鏈問題仍未解決,難以支持進口汽車的新車利潤率。
該行對內地汽車代理商的股份優先排序,首先是中升(00881.HK)、其次是永達(03669.HK)、跟著是美東(01268.HK)及和諧(03836.HK)。以上均予「跑贏大市」評級,各下調目標價46.8元、8.5元、24.5元及4.1元。
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