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《大行報告》匯豐研究下調六間內房股目標價 降旭輝(00884.HK)評級至「持有」
匯豐研究表示,當領先民營開發商旭輝(00884.HK)未能償還貸款,中國困難的房地產行業最近再次陷入困境,主要擔憂是事件引起了市場對「變裝債務」(disguised debt)的關注,造成整個房地產生態系統的另一個壓力點。匯豐研究下調六間內房股目標價,以反映涉及「變裝債務」敞口,以及由於更高的償債風險,將旭輝評級從「買入」下調至「持有」。 匯豐研究表示,「變裝債務」是一種有固定投資回報的工具,屬當滿足一定條件可贖回的投資,於公司賬戶被視為股權。這種融資方式在房產行業中很普遍。雖然披露有限,但有兩種方法可以評估「變裝債務」敞口:一是少數權益比例較高,較低的銷售歸屬比例,以及高槓桿的開發商;二是那些有收購非控制性權益而有重大現金流出的開發商。結果表明,中駿集團(01966.HK)、旭輝(00884.HK)、龍光集團(03380.HK)、合景泰富(01813.HK)、遠洋集團(03377.HK)、以及時代中國(01233.HK)風險較高。 匯豐研究指,在典型的變裝債務安排中,開發商在到期日,用現金回購有問題項目的(通常是少數)股權。如果一切順利,項目將產生足夠的現金流和不會耗盡開發商的流動性。然而,過去一年的銷量下滑嚴重打擊流動性,因此開發商通常無法透過使用項目的現金流回購股份。之後開發商通常會與「股權」持有人協商,以延長債務期限。在旭輝的案例中,持有人拒絕接受延長債務期限。這讓投資者感到不安。在一定程度上,匯豐研究相信市場對這事件反應過度,因為關於類似債務延期的談判在內地很普遍。令人擔憂的是,如果銷售進一步惡化,問題將升級,這對開發商而言仍然是一個重大的下行風險。由於具有韌性的國企很少涉及「變裝債務」,維持偏好中國海外(00688.HK)、華潤置地(01109.HK)及萬科(02202.HK)。內房目標價變動詳見另表。
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