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植耀輝: 非農數據主導美股去向 港股續觀望
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,受惠美股大幅抽升,恆指周三(5日)大升超過1,000點,重上18,000點水平。港股能有強勁表現,原因有二。其一是受惠美股報復式反彈,短短兩個交易日三大指數累升達到5.3%-5.7%,由於A股假期休市,港股自然緊跟隨外圍股市表現。其次則是由於港股本身已相當超賣,一旦氣氛稍為有改善,在「挾淡倉」下自然亦會有較強反彈。 雖然形勢稍有驚喜,但筆者對後市看法依然有相當保留。首先,美股反彈之最大原因在於投資者再次憧憬聯儲局或會受近期經濟數據轉差影響而有望在下年減息。此觀點筆者數月前已指僅是市場一廂情願而已。的確近期當地數據有所轉弱,惟筆者相信仍不足以動搖聯儲局未來加息決心。所以美國今晚(7日)公布之9月非農就業數據表現將相當重要,不過除非數據遠超預期,否則聯儲局亦只會跟隨早前訂下之部署,年內再加息1.25%(即0.75%+0.5%)。 當然,與息口相關之因素隨著早前美股下跌或已有所反映。不過,尚有另一因素將困擾美股去向,就是強美元對企業之影響。在上季業績期,包括蘋果公司(AAPL.US)、微軟(MSFT.US)、輝瑞(PFE.US)及P&G(PG.US)等便不約而同發出警告,受美匯上升所產生之匯兌損失,將反映在未來業績上。根據FactSet的統計資料,標普500指數成份股中,41%收入便來自美國以外地區,由於美匯持續創新高,意味相關影響之威力有增無減,恐怕今次季績表現或會令市場大失所望,將為美股後市帶來另一重壓力。 至於港股方面,雖然周三成交一度急增至過千億元,不過撇除當日之大升市,周一(3日)及昨日(6日)之成交只得633.3億及625億元而已,反映投資者仍相當審慎,由於本身亦缺乏實質利好消息,某程度上亦限制大市表現。照現時情況,內地即將召開之中共「二十大」會議,除了人事安排外,對當前經濟之把脈以及會否有更多刺激措施出台,將對港股與A股有較大啟示。其中,如何解決內房債務問題,對恢復投資者信心可說相當關鍵。故現階段不妨繼續靜觀其變會較適合。 (筆者為證監會持牌人,持有微軟股份) ******** 恆指以10天線作為榮枯指標 耀才研究部稱,隔晚(6日)美股反覆下跌,三大指數連跌兩日,市場觀望今晚美國公布的重磅非農就業數據。首次申領失業救濟人數增加2.9萬人,報21.9萬人,高過預期的20.4萬人,搖擺不定的經濟數據令投資者較審慎並增持現金避險,美匯指數曾升0.99%至112.311,擁有明年投票權的鴿派聯儲官員Neel Kashkari指距離降低通脹還有很遠的路,暫時不會支持局方明年開始減息,令市場憂慮。港股亦將跟隨外圍繼續回吐,黑期預示恆指再失守18,000大關,由於指數仍然受壓於20天線,未能擺脫弱勢的情況下應該先行減持倉位。 技術走勢方面,恆指昨日出現MACD牛訊號,走勢轉為樂觀,但由於指數於10月5日遺下了一個上升裂口,假如跌穿10天線的話則大機會順勢回補裂口,投資者可以10天線即17,625點作為利淡指標。 (筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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