《大行報告》大摩調整中資券商股目標價 市況波動或意味對短中期ROE構成壓力
摩根士丹利發表研究報告指,中資券商資本密集度提高,包括首次公開發售相關衍生產品及共同投資等增加,認為市場波動將對券商短中期股本回報率(ROE)造成壓力。
該行指出,由於第二季流動性帶動市場反彈維持得較短暫,因此第三季市場交易量出現大幅下降,預期股市受壓將持續更長時間。同時由於監管機構正審視第二季對信貸及GDP增長窗口指導和短期政策的副作用;大摩稱,次季溢出的流動性推動作用近月失去動力,令券商下半年將面對非常嚴峻的挑戰,同時競爭持續對佣金率造成壓力,上半年平均下降0.15個基點至2.44個基點,預計第三及四季經紀收入將錄得按年下跌。
大摩將中資券商股2022至2024年ROE預測分別下調0.1、0.2及0.5個百分點,指出市場回報近期或遞減,中期為券商帶來ROE及估值壓力,並調整中資券商股目標價,詳見另表。
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