資本無處可逃？小摩策略師：發達市場的較長期主權債券具有吸引力
摩根大通基金經理Arjun Vij表示，鑑於收益率處於2010年以來的最高水平，多數發達市場的較長期主權債券開始看起來具有吸引力。
數十年來最嚴重的債市潰敗正在吸引更多投資者轉向政府債券，摩根大通也加入了日益壯大的多頭陣營。摩根大通基金經理Arjun Vij表示，鑑於收益率處於2010年以來的最高水平，多數發達市場的較長期主權債券開始看起來具有吸引力。他認爲，市場預期通脹將在未來幾年緩和，這使得這些證券具有吸引力。
Arjun Vij表示：“從長期來看，這創造了相當大的價值。相對於近期的歷史，這顯然很便宜。”“如果我們必須從今天開始增持債券，我們願意購買較長期的政府債券。”
除了Arjun Vij之外，有“新債王”之稱的雙線資本(DoubleLine Capital)創始人兼首席執行官岡拉克(Jeff Gundlach)以及花旗全球財富首席投資策略師Steven Wieting均押注於政府債券，他們相信，全球經濟最終將在大幅加息的重壓下崩潰。不過，由於各大央行幾乎沒有表現出放緩緊縮步伐的意願，如果押注失敗，他們可能會承受巨大的損失。
9月以來，基準十年期美債收益率躍升近80個基點，創下2003年以來的最大單月漲幅。全球債券市場本週加速下跌，英國政府出臺的大規模減稅措施加劇了人們對英國央行進一步加息的擔憂，交易員也在押注歐洲央行還將進一步加息。
到目前爲止，幾乎沒有跡象表明債券市場即將轉向。彭博全球政府和公司債券綜合指數(Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index)自去年12月底以來已下跌逾20%，陷入1990年該指數設立以來的首次熊市。其中，10年期以上的債券下跌了33%。
Arjun Vij指出，考慮到市場對各大央行進一步大幅加息的預期，短期債券的風險可能更高。掉期市場顯示，預計美聯儲將在11月連續第四次加息75個基點，而英國央行下一次會議的加息幅度預計至少是150個基點。
Arjun Vij表示，摩根大通擔心，預計美國消費者價格指數(CPI)同比漲幅在兩年內下降至3%以下的掉期定價低估了通脹的粘性。他還補充稱，該行預計價格壓力將在未來幾年顯著放緩。
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