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《大行報告》高盛下調中國平安(02318.HK)目標價至74元 升財險(02328.HK)目標價至10.2元 降新華保險(01336.HK)評級至「沽售」
高盛發表研究報告指,雖然中國壽險公司上半年整體利潤下降,但基本投資表現好過預期,因此即使股市或進一步下跌,仍相信大多數壽險公司下半年利潤可恢復正增長。 該行預期,未來一年債券收益率下降對壽險企業淨利潤的負面影響將減少,推動明年利潤可實現雙位數增長,同時預期今年股息下行空間有限,保險行業H股除中國太平(00966.HK)外股息收益率料達到7%至10%,為估值帶來支持。 高盛預計,新業務價值(NBV)增長復甦,將推動個股股價表現,當中中國人壽(02628.HK)、中國平安(02318.HK)和中國太保(02601.HK)經紀數量下行空間有限,處於較有利位置,而中國人壽及中國平安今年下半年NBV料可實現正增長,明年上半年三家公司NBV都可增長。 該行給予國壽及平安「買入」評級,目標價分別下調至17元及74元。由於風險回報缺乏吸引力,將新華保險(01336.HK)評級從「中性」下調至「沽售」,目標價降至18元,認為其經紀效率及NBV利潤率下降幅度都高於預期。中國太平評級同為「沽售」,目標價降至7.8元,2022至2024年純利預測下調4%至5%。中國太保評級維持「中性」,目標價降至20.5元。 財險(02328.HK)目標價則升至10.2元,並將今年全年純利預測上調14%,評級「中性」。除中國人壽以外,高盛將明年度盈利預測上調5%至21%。
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