《大行報告》花旗:渣打(02888.HK)有爲外匯對衝及英鎊敞口有限 料受英鎊貶值影響較小
花旗發表報告表示,英國政府上週五(23日)宣佈了一項出乎意料之外的大規模財政支持計劃,由於市場擔心該預算有可能令英國處於不可持續的財政狀況,消息令英鎊兌美元匯價自高峯至相關消息宣佈以後累跌至7.7%,目前處於1.06。英鎊遭拋售亦導致匯豐控股(00005.HK)和渣打(02888.HK)昨日在本港股價受壓,相信是市場反映英鎊匯價貶值的影響,而該行認爲匯控所面臨英鎊貶值所帶來的風險較渣打爲大。
該行指,渣打集團在2021財年年度報告中披露,集團有爲外匯進行對衝以減少其受到匯率波動影響,該行料美元相對於其他貨幣籃子敞口每下跌1%可能會增加4億美元的資本。該行指渣打對英鎊的結構性敞口相對有限。今年上半年渣打的貨幣籃子兌美元貶值約3%至4%,公司指引是外匯對收入的影響估計爲負4億美元,指這可以被營業費用支出影響部分抵銷,即對外匯貶值對稅前盈利影響爲1億美元,指受匯率的影響較小。
花旗料渣打去年旗下歐洲及美國貸款於總體貸款佔比約21%,估計渣打旗下歐洲及美國業務收入於總體收入佔比13%,料佔集團於2021年除稅前利潤約17%。該行維持對渣打「中性」投資評級及目標價70元。
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