《大行報告》瑞銀:英鎊走弱對匯控(00005.HK)構成挑戰 抵銷淨利息收入穩定因素
英國財相關浩霆上周五(23日)公布重大減稅及紓困方案,市場憂慮英政府大量舉債,今早(26日)在亞洲交易時段,英鎊兌美元曾跌見1.0386創歷史低,現跌約2.7%,報1.0564。匯豐控股(00005.HK)今早股價受壓,盤中曾低見42.4元一度下挫7.2%,最新報42.8元跌6.3%,渣打(02888.HK)盤中低見48.2元一度跌8.2%,最新報48.8元挫近7.1%。
據瑞銀上周發表報告表示,英國迎來更高的通脹、更多刺激措施,估計更高的利率及更低的減值,英國利率曲線意味著英國央行最終利率為4.6%(7月底為2.7%),就英國凍結家庭能源開支上限為每年2,500英鎊,料對零售信貸風險有實質性幫助,但對英國政府所頒令400億英鎊紓困計劃則難以令人衡量。總體而言,假設英國利率為3%,認為英國銀行的自由現金流(FCF)具有吸引力,指渣打(02888.HK)屬該行在英國銀行股中國際性銀行的首選。
但該行亦指,不要低估英國經濟前景困難,更大的財政干預不能完全將消費與能源成本隔離開來,特別是對商業和企業賬簿而言,更高的利率意味著隨著固定利率抵押貸款的重置而增加償債成本,而食品通脹增加了累積壓力。商業中的需求破壞和定價權難以擴大,料英國僱主的日子將更加艱難。
瑞銀認為,疲軟的英鎊對匯豐控股(00005.HK)不利,估計對巴克萊銀行亦不利。該行指匯控淨利息收入保持穩定,但留意到被疲軟的英鎊匯價因素的影響所抵銷。但該行維持對匯控英國上市股份「買入」評級,目標價6.8英鎊。
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