《大行報告》中金:小鵬(09868.HK)受產品周期切換及淡季影響 料短期市場悲觀情緒未充分釋放
小鵬汽車-W(09868.HK)昨股價下挫11.6%後,今早股價跌3.8%新報51.9元。中金發表報告表示,近期,受到產品周期切換及消費淡季的影響,小鵬汽車股價持續回調,該行認為短期悲觀情緒或仍未充分釋放,雖然基本面的改善已經初步體現,但情緒面的反轉仍需G9訂單及交付兌現、城市NGP的體驗及業績改善等進行確認。
該行指,小鵬汽車當前股價對應2022年企業價值對收入的3.1倍,維持對其「跑贏行業」評級,考慮到公司產品迭代期銷量受限,分別下調對其2022及2023年收入預測各7%及17%,至324億及692億元人民幣,考慮到規模降低帶來費用支出減少,對應上調2022年及2023年扣非後淨利潤至-76.6億及-17.1億人民幣(前值預測為-83.3億元及-23.7億元人民幣)。
考慮到板塊估值回調,該行下調對小鵬汽車目標價30%至80港元,對應2022年企業價值對收入的4倍水平。
中金指,小鵬G9正式發布,起售價基本符合預期,兩驅G/E版本售價區間30萬至35萬元人民幣,定位家庭實用大5座SUV。從銷量維度來看,公司指引G9有望逐步實現月銷過萬,該行認為G9在空間、性能、智能座艙和乘坐舒適度等方面均處於同級領先水平,而中大型SUV則受益於消費升級和二胎政策帶來的市場空間持續擴容。
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