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《大行報告》花旗料港銀第三季淨息差仍按季擴張 中銀香港(02388.HK)升至1.39%
花旗發表研究報告指,美國日前宣布加息75個基點,隨後匯豐亦宣布自9月23日起將香港最優惠利率上調12.5個基點至5.125%,港元儲蓄率也上調了相若的12.4個基點,渣打、中銀香港(02388.HK)及恆生銀行(00011.HK)緊隨其後加息12.5個基點。 大部分按揭貸款利率已達封頂位,最優惠利率上調12.5個基點後新近按息封頂位升至2.875%。該行提到,由於與最優惠利率掛鉤的存款佔比多於按揭貸款,預測若港銀的港元儲蓄存款利率加幅與最優惠利率一致,則最優惠利率每上調25個基點將導致恆生的淨息差收縮3至4個基點,中銀香港淨息差料收縮1個基點。 考慮到香港1個月銀行同業拆息(HIBOR)已經達2.6%水平,12個月升至4.2%,花旗指今次最優惠利率的加幅小於預期,至於未來升幅將取決於融資成本和宏觀環境,認為如果融資成本大幅增加,連同今次的12.5個基點加幅,最優惠利率總計將提高1.5%。 花旗預計香港銀行淨息差第三季仍將大幅擴張,主要由於1個月HIBOR的增長所致,預測中銀香港第三季基本淨息差將按季升20個基點至1.39%,而恆生下半年淨息差預期較上半年升48個基點至2%。
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