《大行報告》匯豐研究:樓市情緒料仍低迷 偏好新地(00016.HK)及恆地(00012.HK)
匯豐研究發表報告指,如本港住宅市場出現更多不利因素,市場情緒料進一步惡化,偏好新地(00016)及恆地(00012),均予「買入」評級,分別予目標價117.5元及39.2元。
匯豐研究提到,自7月以來,本港樓價一直走軟,年初至今累跌7%。雖然香港發展商的股票表現一直優於恆指表現,這與過去三十年的大部分加息周期相似,但如本地經濟進一步惡化,且加息幅度進一步擴大,發展商將會面臨盈利下行風臉。
根據該行預測,如本港樓價格下跌20%,同時利率上升至5%,該行估算發展商資產淨值(NAV)將跌6.6%,其2023年純利或下降5%至27%。當中,新世界發展(00017.HK)的估值壓力最大,而恆地和長實集團(01113.HK)或將在2023年面對更大盈利下調。該行又估計,發展商平均約有23%資產敞口與香港住宅板塊相關。
該行建議投資者在當前市場波動的情況下保持防守性,並優先選擇盈利確定性較高且大眾市場住宅敞口較大的房地產公司。
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