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《大行報告》大摩料本港明年樓價再跌5% 指若一個月HIBOR升至3.5厘 收入與供款比率將升至62%
阿思達克 09-23 10:12
摩根士丹利發表本港銀行及地產行業報告表示,美聯儲局近日如預期加息0.75厘,對2022年年底和2023年底聯邦基金利率的預測中值分別為4.4%和4.6%,匯控(00005.HK)旗下匯豐銀行昨(22日)公布上調港元最優惠利率12.5點子至5.125厘,顯示其對上調最優惠利率採審慎態度,大摩相信此舉影響有限,但隨著美聯儲未來進一步加息,這可能為港銀未來的加息鋪平道路。而該行指本港住宅市場目前由最終用家所支持,料對按揭貸款利率不會太過敏感。 對房地產市場和開發商股票的影響,該行指利率上升導致負擔能力轉弱。根據該行計算,私人住宅市場每月按揭貸款支出與每月收入的比率為55%(如果HIBOR升至3.5%,相關比率可能達到62%)。這仍然是該行對本港房地產開發商股票持審慎看法的最大原因之一。大摩表示,本港住宅樓價由年初至今已累跌8%,並預計2023年將再跌5%,指目前尚未觸底。 至於對港銀的影響,這次上調最優惠利率可能會削弱美國加息對銀行的利好作用,但基於總體利率上升環境仍然對港銀淨息差有利,該行預計今年第三季度整個行業的淨息差擴張。
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