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經絡曹德明:匯豐加P料按息趨正常化 其他銀行將跟隨
阿思達克 09-22 13:32
美國再度加息0.75厘,匯豐銀行亦宣布調高最優惠利率(P)至5.125厘。經絡按揭轉介首席副總裁曹德明表示,是次匯豐銀行宣布加息及其幅度如預期下限,現時一個月HIBOR處於2.5厘以上,在聯繫匯率制度下,港美息口差距進一步擴寬,在資金成本壓力下,香港銀行加息已難避免,相信各銀行因應自身資金成本將陸續跟隨加息步伐。 曹德明預料年內美國加息仍會持續,年底前聯邦基金利率有機會升穿4厘水平,年尾香港銀行亦有可能再調升P,預計加息幅度約為0.5厘至0.75厘左右,甚至或早於下次議息會議前再次加息。 他提到,是次匯豐銀行加息,供樓負擔及壓力測試入息要求將逐步調升。假設以貸款額500萬元、還款期為30年、選用H按H加1.3%,現時H按實際息率已升至封頂息率P減2.25%,未加息前P為5%,實際息率為2.75厘,每月供款為20,412元,壓力測試要求為48,631元。而港P增加0.125厘,實際息率升至2.875厘,每月供款將上升至20,745元,即增加333元或1.6%,壓力測試要求將上升至49,295元,即增加664元或1.4%。 曹德明重申,現時銀行結餘仍有1,249億元,因此是次首次加息的加幅溫和。而近30年的平均息率為4.91厘,可見現時的按息水平屬超低息水平,加息令利率步向正常化,即使本港加息至半厘,供樓負擔未見大增,仍屬健康水平。曹認為長遠而言,整體經濟環境、樓價走勢及失業率對樓按市場的影響相對較大。
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