上週引發美股暴跌的CPI統計錯了?
周美國公佈的通脹報告,引發了美股暴跌和市場對美聯儲本週至少加息75個基點的預期。
但如果8月份核心消費者價格指數(CPI)並沒有像報告中所說的那樣上漲0.6%呢?
經濟指標對金融市場有着強大的影響——看看美國股市基準指數就知道了,在CPI發佈後,美國股市出現了自2020年以來的最大單日跌幅。但人們經常忘記的是,這些數據有很大的誤差範圍。
當美聯儲6月份將基準利率上調75個基點時,美聯儲主席鮑威爾提到,官員們注意到密歇根大學的一項調查顯示,通脹預期出現了“引人注目的”躍升。這個3.3%的增速後來降至3.1%。
美國勞工統計局(BLS)前局長Erica Groshen表示,統計收集機構陷入了困境,因爲它們既希望對數據的不確定性和侷限性保持透明,又要認識到,它們發佈的數據仍然是決策者評估整個經濟狀況的最佳數據。
市場參與者似乎並沒有在這個難題上花太多時間。
Groshen表示,“坦率地說,他們在新聞報道出來之前就開始交易了。”他暗指的是在人們甚至可以數據公佈之前就開始進行的算法交易。
EY Parthenon首席經濟學家Greg Daco表示,考慮到數據受到的關注,最令人不安的誤差幅度可能是有關美國非農就業人數變化的月度數據。
Daco表示,就業數據有一個相當寬的所謂置信區間——一個包括估計數字正負變化的區間。美國勞工統計局認爲,有90%的把握,“真實的”估計值是高於或低於報告數字的12萬個工作崗位。
這意味着8月非農就業人數可能僅增加19.5萬人,或激增43.5萬人,而不是數據發佈時顯示的31.5萬人。
至於CPI,月度標準誤差中位數爲0.04個百分點。細分類別的差額較大。例如,在家吃的食物,它是0.13。在衡量美國經濟的真實表現時,需要記住這一點。
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