惠譽:內地鋼鐵業續面臨挑戰 惟料盈利能力不會進一步惡化
評級機構惠譽表示,由於房地產行業需求弱於預期,疊加防疫相關的限制舉措持續影響建築施工活動,內地鋼鐵行業繼續面臨挑戰。然而,鑑於一方面行業因需求疲軟而減產,一方面原材料價格高企應能支持平均售價(儘管處於低位),預期鋼鐵行業盈利能力不會進一步惡化。
惠譽預期,寶鋼股份(600019.SH)及河鋼集團等中國龍頭鋼鐵製造企業的全年EBITDA業績表現與2019及2020年水平相當,但遠低於2021年水平。
今年首七個月,鋼鐵消費量(以總產量減去淨出口量衡量)按年下降6%至約5.7億噸。其原因在於下游(尤其是房地產行業)需求乏力,加之適逢建築施工的傳統淡季夏季。原材料煤炭、焦煤和鐵礦石的價格飆升進一步加劇全行業虧損,迫使鋼企主動減產——7月粗鋼產量較6月減少逾10%。較低的產量令盈利能力於8月回升——儘管盈利水平處於較低水平。惠譽預期,隨著施工旺季的到來,產量將自9月開始復甦。
雖然7月基礎設施建設投資按年增加9.1%,但惠譽預期,鋼材需求的強勢復甦不會掃除房地產行業低迷帶來的挑戰——今年首七個月房屋新開工面積增速按年下滑36.1%,房屋竣工面積增速按年下降22.7%。此外,鋼材需求也受到製造業增速放緩的影響,今年首七個月製造業按年增長率從今年首六個月的10.4%減速至9.9%。製造業增速放緩是由於對全球經濟衰退的擔憂導致出口下滑,且不時爆發的疫情令內需不振。
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