《大行報告》中信証券:蔚來(09866.HK)新平台產品走量 規模效應迎拐點 有望獲價值重估
蔚來-SW(09866.HK)今早股價抽上,盤中曾高見174元一度彈高20.8%,最新報168元升16.7%。中信証券發表報告表示,對標燃油車競爭格局,蔚來所在的豪華車電動車市場穩態的集中度或更高,且受益於消費升級長期將持續擴容。公司今年推出的基於NT2.0平台的ET7、ES7、ET5產品力相較於初代「866」產品在能耗效率、智能座艙、智能駕駛等方面均有明顯提升,該行尤其看好ET5車型成為爆款。市場目前核心擔心蔚來的盈利能力,但該行認為隨著第二代車型周期開啟,公司進入到「產品力拉動銷量」的新階段,規模效應拐點到來,毛利提升和費用攤薄加速。該行認為蔚來有望獲得價值重估,重申「買入」評級。
該行指,蔚來旗下NT2.0平台是2022年蔚來推出的全新產品平台,新車型ET7、ES7、ET5和後續的新產品/改款產品都基於此平台打造。相比「866」老產品(ES8、ES6、EC6)所在的NT1.0平台,新平台運用了NIO最新的底盤、座艙、及輔助駕駛平台化技術,能耗效率提升的同時駕駛體驗得以豐富。其中,座艙方面,頂級的聲學、車機、燈光 系統打造「科技豪華」感,舒適與前衛並存;輔助駕駛方面,標配NIO Adam超算平台和Aquila超感系統,軟件開啟全棧自研,有助於快速功能迭代,提高輔助駕駛體驗的上限。ET5上市之後獲得了極強的市場反饋,該行認為ET5將成為豪華車入門級產品的新爆款,穩態有望每月銷量達到1.2萬至1.3萬輛(年銷量15萬輛)。
當前市場擔憂的核心是蔚來產品不夠走量、和營運成本較高的問題。對此該行認為蔚來旗下NT2.0平台產品(特別是ET5)的上市走量有望逐漸打消市場的擔憂。該行維持蔚來目標價181元,維持「買入」評級。該行料蔚來至2024年可扭虧為盈,GAAP淨利潤錄13億人民幣。
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