郭思治: 大市之支持已退守至18,235點
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市自踏進9月份後,在沽壓一面倒主導下,整體跌勢正逐漸加劇中,直到執筆一刻止計,本月大市在先高後低之形態主導下,恆指暫是由1日之高位19,839點跌至8日之低位18,803點,即在短短6個交易日內,恆指累積跌幅已達1,036點,首先,一個月之高低位是不該同時出現於六個交易日之內,加上1,036點之波幅或仍不能滿足月內之所需,故在本月餘下之交易日,理論上該有更大之波幅點出現,而由於目前騰訊(00700.HK)及比亞迪(01211.HK)均有大股東減持,故單從事件上看,恆指再進一步往下尋月內新低之機會似較大。
再從技術上看,大市在沽壓不斷湧現下,恆指目前已正式跌穿由5月10日低位19,178點與8月24日低位19,189點所組成的小雙底,單從年圖上看,目前較具防守性之支持據點已退守至3月15日之低位18,235點,值得留意的是,今年之形態暫仍屬先高而後低,恆指暫是由2月10日之高位25,050點跌至3日15日之低位18,235點,即年內之波幅暫為6,815點,由於一年恆指的高低位是不該同時出現於五周之內,加上6,815點之波幅相對仍較細,未必能滿足年內之所需,故在本年餘下之交易日,理論上該有更大之波幅點出現,而由於恆指目前已跌近年內低位左近,故單從技術上看,大市續往下尋年內新低之機會該較大。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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