惠譽料中國國有油企上游板塊盈利能力強勁 可彌補下游業務疲弱
評級機構惠譽預期,今年中國國有石油公司的上游板塊將受益於節節攀升的油氣價格,對上游板塊的投資應能維持其強勁的增長勢頭,繼而或將支撐國內油氣生產。
惠譽指,隨著防疫管控措施的放鬆,內地成品油產品內需有望於今年下半年回暖,但考慮到今年將有諸多煉化一體化項目投產,認為內地供需失衡局勢將延續。惠譽又預期,去除庫存損益後的煉油利潤率將收窄,因在成品油產品的現行定價機制下,高企的原油價格無法全部傳導至下游。
惠譽預期,由於煉油板塊疲弱的業績表現將被上游業務的穩健增長所抵銷,中國油氣行業發行人的財務狀況將保持強勁。中海油(00883.HK)等僅從事上游板塊運營的企業或將錄得更高盈利增速,並保持其淨現金頭寸。於今年至2024年間,惠譽預期中石油(00857.HK)以及中石化(00386.HK)的淨債務與EBITDA的比率將繼續低於0.5倍,與其各自獨立信用狀況相稱。(ek/u)
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