《大行報告》中金:LPR非對稱減息節省經濟利息支出逾二千億人幣 但料利息節省或仍不足以穩住總體購房信心
中金發表報告表示,人行昨日貸款市場報價利率(LPR)如期非對稱降息,1年期LPR下調5個基點至3.65%,5年期以上LPR下調15個基點至4.3%。這是第二次LPR偏向5年期的非對稱下調,首次在今年5月,中期借貸便利(MLF)和1年LPR均未下調,但5年期LPR下調、且開啟單次最大步長15個基點,而這一次步5月後塵,繼續釋放穩地產和長期投資的信號。
該行指,本次非對稱降息後,1年和5年LPR自2018年9月改革以來的降幅基本趨同。LPR的下調進一步打開了房貸利率的下行空間。去年第四季度以來,樣本城市首套和二套房貸利率已經下行139和93個基點至4.35%和5.07%,今年以來全國個人住房貸款加權平均利率已經下降101個基點至4.65%,而同期5年期LPR僅下降35個基點,更多為下浮比例加大。本次MLF成本下降疊加5年期LPR下調,再為按揭利率創造15個基點的空間下調。
中金指,本次LPR非對稱調降預計為經濟節省利息支出2,141億人民幣,約為GDP的0.2%。下調5年LPR的15個基點預計可節省年化利息支出1,660億人民幣,相當於GDP的0.15%。從房貸角度看,考慮到第二季度末個人購房貸款餘額38.9萬億人民幣,本次5年期LPR調降15個基點,相當於年化節省居民房貸利息583億人民幣,但考慮到重定價日因素,存量影響或更多在明年體現。今年上半年房貸利率已經下降了101個基點,今年來的按揭利率下行為未來居民節省的房貸年化利息已超4,500億人民幣。
而MLF降息10個基點或將為銀行年化節約成本330億至930億元人民幣,低於LPR調降帶來的資產端利息減收。內銀息差或有所收窄,未來銀行負債端存款利率改革等措施或將繼續深化。
中金預計內地短期流動性仍將維持寬鬆,弱增長預期和鬆貨幣確認下的長端利率仍有補降空間,未來鬆貨幣力度需視增長動力相機抉擇,並會容忍一定程度的結構性通脹壓力。財政力度亦須加碼,在地產基建受債務約束之下,政策乘數或下降,財政或需從保主體向保消費傾斜,以更高效直達終端、托舉需求。地產方面,非對稱降息繼續釋放穩樓市信號,但利息節省或仍不足以穩住總體購房信心,供給端房企紓困、化債、保交樓、破舊立新、重啟活力或更為關鍵。
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