吉比特(603444)深度研究:問道精品研運 逍遙品類多元
【投資要點】以問道為基,踏遊戲之路。公司以《問道》系列為基,深耕行業十餘載,業務涵蓋遊戲研發,遊戲發行運營等環節,多年以來業務能力不斷精進,產品矩陣日益豐富,已成為行業內兼具自研能力與精細化運營能力的稀缺標的。聚焦MMORPG+放置類+Roguelike 三大賽道,產品質量表現過硬。公司代表作回合制MMORPG 遊戲《問道》系列表現穩健,其中《問道》手游上線時間超過6 年,收入依然能夠逆勢增長;2021 年公司放置類新遊《一念逍遙》表現突出,遊戲上線一年後在iOS 遊戲暢銷榜仍能保持在Top20,公司多品類自研能力與長期運營能力進一步凸顯;公司旗下雷霆平台深挖Roguelike 細分賽道,在小眾品類積攢口碑,成功培養核心玩家社羣,已成為賽道龍頭。《摩爾莊園》、《奧比島》拓展模擬經營,破圈效應打開新用户圈層。公司通過《摩爾莊園》積攢爆款情懷類產品與模擬經營產品發行經驗。近期發行的《奧比島:夢想國度》對比《摩爾莊園》,IP 價值同樣突出,公司從前者積攢的運營、發行經驗也能進一步優化後者玩家遊戲體驗。《摩爾莊園》與《奧比島:夢想國度》的破圈成功進一步為雷霆發行平台積攢口碑,深入拓展女性用户與Z 世代用户羣體。【投資建議】公司研運能力均為行業翹楚,旗下游戲覆蓋多個品類,用户圈層廣闊深厚。遊戲產品中《問道》手遊表現穩健,為公司收入基本盤;《一念逍遙》上線一年後暢銷榜排名仍能保持在Top20 左右,產品質量過硬,持續貢獻收入增量。我們看好公司老產品在精細化運營能力下維持旺盛的生命力,以及公司在突出的研發能力加持下新產品的表現。我們預測公司2022-2024 年營收分別為54.7/62.4/71.3 億 , 歸 母 淨利 潤16.1/18.2/20.6 億,EPS 對應22.4/25.3/28.7 元/每股,PE 分別為14/12/11 倍,維持“增持”評級。【風險提示】對主要產品依賴風險宏觀經濟下行風險政策監管風險【關鍵假設】
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